Ah, youth. Remember those carefree days of record-breaking heat we shared waaaaaay back in 2014? If only we could relive that glorious time again.
I mean, sure, January 2015 turned out to have the second hottest average global temperature across land and sea ever recorded for that month, and so did February. And March 2015 was hotter than the last 135 Marches measured by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, but then April 2015 was only the fourth hottest April ever recorded, so whatever.
October Continues the Trend of 2015 Being Hot as F&$k!
So yes, dear reader, in case that preamble was too subtle, data just released from NASA shows that October 2015 broke the previous heat record for October, which was set just last year. And it didn’t break it by a little. It broke it by a lot.
Earlier this year, scientists predicted that El Nino plus the ongoing joys of global warming could combine to make 2015 the hottest year ever recorded in the last 136 years. As of today, they’re 99.9 percent guaranteed to be proved right, according to climate scientist Gavin Schmidt.
Probability that 2015 will be a record warm year now 99.9% based on Jan-Oct GISTEMP data. pic.twitter.com/glfKYAha3X
— Gavin Schmidt (@ClimateOfGavin) November 17, 2015
No Global Cooling for You
What’s more, this officially debunks the “global cooling” forecasts made in 2007 and 2008 by two independent teams of researchers. As Schmidt explains on his website, the first paper, Smith et al. (2007), predicted that internal variability would “partially offset the anthropogenic global warming signal for the next few years” but that warming itself would not cease and “at least half of the years after 2009 would exceed the warmest year currently on record.” The other paper, Keenlyside et al. (2008), concluded that natural climate variations in the North Atlantic and tropical Pacific would “temporarily offset the projected anthropogenic warming,” potentially resulting in no surface temperature increase over the proceeding decade. Schmidt and RealClimate assessed these studies and then offered the authors a bet on whether or not they’d turn out to be accurate. The authors ignored the offer, but Schmidt would have won big if they’d agreed.
“It is clear that prediction of global cooling or even stasis was way off the mark,” Schmidt wrote this morning, “with global warming continuing and observations running more than 0.15℃ warmer than the Keenlyside et al forecast.”
If the studies’ authors had accepted RealClimate’s bet, Schmidt says “we would have won unambiguously.” However, he’s quick to explain that the bet was intended not to shame his fellow scientists but to draw undue media attention at the time from the oft-shouted claims that global warming was in remission or a hoax.
“The authors of the papers involved are to be commended for trying something new and making real and falsifiable predictions,” Schmidt wrote. “However, much more care should have been taken to self-critically examine their potential skill and emphasize their experimental nature, and the levels of certainty expressed in press releases and popular media should have been dialed way down. We offered the bet at the time as we were concerned that the failed forecasts would in the end cast a shadow on the credibility of climate science as a whole, so we felt a need to emphasize that other climate scientists disagreed with these forecasts.”
With that in mind, let me end this article by reminding you of the following facts:
- Some 97.1 percent of climate scientists agree that global warming is real and influenced by humans.
- The 2.9 percent who disagree have some serious flaws in their studies.
- Exxon knew about global warming as early as the 1970s and chose to ignore its own scientists and perpetuate a misinformation campaign instead.
- Fourteen of the 15 hottest years on record have all occurred since 2000.
Would anyone care for a chocolate bunny?