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Ah, youth. Remember those carefree days of record-breaking heat we shared waaaaaay back in 2014? If only we could relive that glorious time again.

I mean, sure, January 2015 turned out to have the second hottest average global temperature across land and sea ever recorded for that month, and so did February. And March 2015 was hotter than the last 135 Marches measured by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, but then April 2015 was only the fourth hottest April ever recorded, so whatever.

But you know what? Now that I think about it, I guess, May, June, July, August, September and now October 2015 all broke their previous average heat records. Man, it’s déjà vu all over again.

Photo Credit: Brocken Inaglory

Photo Credit: Brocken Inaglory

October Continues the Trend of 2015 Being Hot as F&$k!

So yes, dear reader, in case that preamble was too subtle, data just released from NASA shows that October 2015 broke the previous heat record for October, which was set just last year. And it didn’t break it by a little. It broke it by a lot.

Monthly global temperature departure from average in degrees Celsius (divide by 100 for specific departure). (Image via NASA)

Monthly global temperature departure from average in degrees Celsius (divide by 100 for specific departure). (Image via NASA)

Earlier this year, scientists predicted that El Nino plus the ongoing joys of global warming could combine to make 2015 the hottest year ever recorded in the last 136 years. As of today, they’re 99.9 percent guaranteed to be proved right, according to climate scientist Gavin Schmidt.

No Global Cooling for You

What’s more, this officially debunks the “global cooling” forecasts made in 2007 and 2008 by two independent teams of researchers. As Schmidt explains on his website, the first paper, Smith et al. (2007), predicted that internal variability would “partially offset the anthropogenic global warming signal for the next few years” but that warming itself would not cease and “at least half of the years after 2009 would exceed the warmest year currently on record.” The other paper, Keenlyside et al. (2008), concluded that natural climate variations in the North Atlantic and tropical Pacific would “temporarily offset the projected anthropogenic warming,” potentially resulting in no surface temperature increase over the proceeding decade.   Schmidt and RealClimate assessed these studies and then offered the authors a bet on whether or not they’d turn out to be accurate. The authors ignored the offer, but Schmidt would have won big if they’d agreed.  

Blue dots and curve show global temperature data (NASA GISTEMP), red dots with confidence intervals the model forecasts and hindcast, for the same 10-year intervals chosen by Keenlyside et al in their paper. (Image via RealClimate)

Blue dots and curve show global temperature data (NASA GISTEMP), red dots with confidence intervals the model forecasts and hindcast, for the same 10-year intervals chosen by Keenlyside et al in their paper. (Image via RealClimate)

  “It is clear that prediction of global cooling or even stasis was way off the mark,” Schmidt wrote this morning, “with global warming continuing and observations running more than 0.15℃ warmer than the Keenlyside et al forecast.”  

If the studies’ authors had accepted RealClimate’s bet, Schmidt says “we would have won unambiguously.” However, he’s quick to explain that the bet was intended not to shame his fellow scientists but to draw undue media attention at the time from the oft-shouted claims that global warming was in remission or a hoax.

“The authors of the papers involved are to be commended for trying something new and making real and falsifiable predictions,” Schmidt wrote. “However, much more care should have been taken to self-critically examine their potential skill and emphasize their experimental nature, and the levels of certainty expressed in press releases and popular media should have been dialed way down. We offered the bet at the time as we were concerned that the failed forecasts would in the end cast a shadow on the credibility of climate science as a whole, so we felt a need to emphasize that other climate scientists disagreed with these forecasts.”

With that in mind, let me end this article by reminding you of the following facts:

Would anyone care for a chocolate bunny?


Via gifbay

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